Almost 60% of oil and gas reserves and 90% of coal must remain in the ground to keep global warming below 1.5C, scientists say.
The forecast is based on close analysis of global energy supply and demand.
It is a “bleak” but realistic assessment of “what the science tells us is needed”, the researchers say.
And they have “painted a scenario of the future” that leaves much less room for fossil fuels to be extracted than previously estimated.
cientists say that limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5C should help the world avoid the most dangerous effects of climate change. Globally, the researchers calculated, production of fossil fuels needed to have peaked in 2020 and be on a steady decline of 3% every year until 2050.
“Through the Covid pandemic, we have seen a large decline in production – but that is bouncing back,” UCL associate professor of energy systems Dr Steve Pye told BBC News.
